Unlisted Rare Earth Oxide Imports Continue to Tighten When Will Imports of Myanmar Ore Resume? [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 20 News: Recently, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data for January-February 2025. According to customs data, China's rare earth metal ore imports in January-February 2025 were 7,780.5 mt and 2,886 mt respectively, up 40% YoY. February imports decreased 63% MoM and 18% YoY. China's imported rare earth metal ore is almost entirely from the US MP mine. Due to the development of its own rare earth industry chain in the US, imports of rare earth metal ore from the US in 2024 were reduced to 55,000 mt. MP Materials will continue to advance its "Upstream 60K" strategy, aiming to increase annual production of rare earth oxides to 60,000 mt by 2026. Additionally, the company plans to achieve commercial production of NdFeB permanent magnets by the end of 2025, further improving the entire industry chain layout from rare earth mining to magnetic material manufacturing. Based on current expansion in the US, it is expected that this part of the import volume will continue to decrease to 42,000 mt in 2025. In January-February 2025, China's unlisted rare earth oxide imports were about 4,163 mt, down 40% YoY. In February, unlisted rare earth oxide imports were only 1,270 mt, a 56% YoY reduction and a 60% MoM reduction. It is understood that there are currently market rumors that Myanmar mines may resume imports in late April or at the end of Q2, but miners have reported that they have not received any information about resuming imports, and in the short term, supply from Myanmar mines may still be difficult to restore. In January-February 2025, China's mixed rare earth carbonate imports were 716 mt, down 57% YoY. In February, imports decreased 94% MoM and 95% YoY. It is reported that Malaysian authorities hope that by 2025, the rare earth industry will contribute approximately 2.2 billion US dollars to the country's GDP and attract investment from China and the US to jointly establish an integrated rare earth industry chain. Malaysian authorities also plan to increase support for the rare earth industry, including providing tax incentives, financial subsidies, and other policy measures, to attract more domestic and overseas enterprises to participate in the development and utilization of the rare earth industry. It is expected that mixed rare earth carbonate imports in 2025 may recover to 15,000 mt.